ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Dark Horsewin 1:0series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:0
11换1loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dark Horse
Clockwerk
sheep · 1 game
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 1 game
1换1
Batrideroften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
Clockwerk
zzq · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zzq · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
zeal · 1 game
Doomoften banned
zeal · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
zeal · 1 game
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 629 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 1换1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 1换1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Dark Horse 23%1换1 77%
The model gave 77% on 1换1 — the game was taken by Dark Horse.
Model check result
Model favorite1换1 · 77%
Series resultDark Horse 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1