The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dark Horseloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KEVwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dark Horse
Clockwerk
sheep · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 7 games
Lion
sheep · 3 games
Techies
sheep · 3 games
Bane
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
sheep · 2 games
Grimstroke
sheep · 2 games
Hoodwink
sheep · 2 games
KEV
Dark Willowsignature
RedPanda · 9 games
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 9 games
Weaversignature
flyfly · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Lifestealersignature
flyfly · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
478 picks · 228 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 751 bans
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 416 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 630 bans
Batrider
398 picks · 732 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
361 picks · 1012 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 720 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% KEV
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:39
Dark Horse 34%KEV 66%
The model gave 66% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 59:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spiritsheep
LifestealerUlu
Jakiro谢乐zzz张泽中
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
63% · 43 games
Pangolier生死
59% · 43 games
Dark WillowRedPanda
50% · 36 games
Shadow DemonUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct27:26
Dark Horse 34%KEV 66%
The model gave 66% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phoenixsheep
UrsaUlu
Crystal Maiden谢乐zzz张泽中
RazorButterflyEffect
47% · 91 game
Vengeful Spirit生死
56% · 57 games
WeaverRedPanda
50% · 91 game
GrimstrokeUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 72%
Series resultKEV 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2