Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dark Horsewin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dark Horse
Clockwerkoften banned
sheep · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 8 games
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
Lion
sheep · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
Techies
sheep · 3 games
Team Bright
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 11 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Tidehunter
Irving · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
TK · 8 games
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 8 games
Slardarsignature
Irving · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
417 picks · 618 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 390 bans
Crystal Maiden
369 picks · 143 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
317 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 156 bans
Dark Willow
316 picks · 341 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 653 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Team Bright
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:27
Dark Horse 47%Team Bright 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwinksheep
Troll Warlordukiyo
PudgeUndyne_
WeaverTK
59% · 31 game
DisruptorTz.
Game 2prediction missed34:17
Dark Horse 46%Team Bright 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 22:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PhoenixUndyne_
Chaos Knightukiyo
Tinysheep
SnapfireTK
46% · 38 games
UndyingTz.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 53%
Series resultDark Horse 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2