PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darkhorsewin 2:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darkhorse
No games played over 6 months.
Team Bright
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 9 games
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
TK · 6 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 6 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 350 bans
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 602 bans
Techies
365 picks · 290 bans
Mars
363 picks · 560 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
344 picks · 709 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 195 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:25
Darkhorse 30%Team Bright 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Darkhorse in 1:01:47.
Game 2prediction missed24:10
Darkhorse 30%Team Bright 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Darkhorse in 22:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 70%
Series resultDarkhorse 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2