Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Darksideloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Tiny
sayuw · 21 game
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
Rubick
sayuw · 14 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
Mirana
sayuw · 11 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
krylat · 11 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
802 picks · 564 bans
Tiny
576 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 414 bans
Nature's Prophet
463 picks · 749 bans
Death Prophet
420 picks · 858 bans
Snapfire
419 picks · 299 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 875 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Darkside 21%Virtus.pro 79%
The model gave 79% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:29.
Game 2prediction correct19:28
Darkside 21%Virtus.pro 79%
The model gave 79% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 48:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 79%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2