Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darlengloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darleng
Leshracoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jing · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Kuku · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Gyrocopter
Jing · 1 game
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 546 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 339 bans
Mars
334 picks · 508 bans
Techies
321 picks · 253 bans
Batrider
310 picks · 605 bans
Hoodwink
304 picks · 183 bans
Pangolier
292 picks · 456 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Darleng
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:12
Darleng 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Darleng in 50:11.
Game 2prediction correct6:30
Darleng 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 23:34.
Game 3prediction correct24:34
Darleng 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 52:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 51%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3