EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
Dawn Bullsloss 0:1series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ssalamitwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dawn Bulls
Dawnbreakersignature
Xibbe · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
yamich · 8 games
Miranasignature
Se · 8 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Hoodwink
Se · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Xibbe · 3 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 3 games
Anti-Mage
Shad · 2 games
salamit
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
533 picks · 352 bans
Dark Willow
471 picks · 259 bans
Mirana
413 picks · 185 bans
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 341 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 525 bans
Windranger
317 picks · 148 bans
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 297 bans
Earth Spirit
300 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Dawn Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Dawn Bulls
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Dawn Bulls 83%salamit 17%
The model gave 83% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by salamit.
Model check result
Model favoriteDawn Bulls · 83%
Series resultsalamit 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1