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WINLINE Star Series #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Daxak Teamwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stariy_Bog Clubloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Daxak Team

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Groom · 3 games
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Daxak · 2 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Unique · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lich
r4dom1r · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
eccobladee2k · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphling
eccobladee2k · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
eccobladee2k · 2 games
50%

Stariy_Bog Club

Axe
Axeoften banned
Antares · 2 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
D_Mini · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stariy bog · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
D_Mini · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
D_Mini · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Satanic · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
D_Mini · 2 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Satanic · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
464 picks · 284 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 133 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
309 picks · 125 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
300 picks · 455 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 287 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 414 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
273 picks · 227 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
267 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Daxak Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Stariy_Bog Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:15
Daxak Team 44%Stariy_Bog Club 56%
The model gave 56% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 25:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
Ioeccobladee2k
50% · 51 game52% · 227 games
WindrangerSatanic
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritUnique
64% · 359 games46% · 131 game
Void SpiritStariy bog
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterDaxak
48% · 221 game47% · 168 games
MarsAntares
Mars
Zeus
Zeusr4dom1r
39% · 28 games53% · 222 games
RubickD_Mini
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaGroom
46% · 89 games
Game 2prediction correct16:47
Daxak Team 43%Stariy_Bog Club 57%
The model gave 57% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voideccobladee2k
48% · 46 games46% · 96 games
JuggernautSatanic
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritUnique
47% · 165 games50% · 375 games
Centaur WarrunnerAntares
Centaur Warrunner
Pudge
PudgeDaxak
60% · 69 games43% · 149 games
Skywrath MageStariy bog
Skywrath Mage
Windranger
WindrangerGroom
59% · 177 games50% · 271 game
DisruptorD_Mini
Disruptor
Jakiro
Jakiror4dom1r
48% · 434 games
Game 3prediction missed31:12
Daxak Team 43%Stariy_Bog Club 57%
The model gave 57% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingDaxak
45% · 57 games52% · 57 games
Lone DruidSatanic
Lone Druid
Slark
Slarkeccobladee2k
60% · 25 games46% · 68 games
Spirit BreakerAntares
Spirit Breaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritUnique
49% · 65 games47% · 211 games
WindrangerStariy bog
Windranger
Tusk
TuskGroom
50% · 224 games49% · 60 games
DazzleD_Mini
Dazzle
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorr4dom1r
61% · 25 games
Model check result
Model favoriteStariy_Bog Club · 65%
Series resultDaxak Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3