WINLINE Star Series #4 · BO5
result vs prediction
Daxak Teamwin 3:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Stariy_Bog Clubloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Daxak Team
Grimstroke
Groom · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Sand King
Daxak · 3 games
Witch Doctor
r4dom1r · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Daxak · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Unique · 2 games
Earthshaker
Unique · 2 games
Jakiro
r4dom1r · 2 games
Stariy_Bog Club
Disruptor
D_Mini · 4 games
Grimstroke
D_Mini · 3 games
Hoodwink
D_Mini · 3 games
Rubick
D_Mini · 3 games
Void Spirit
Stariy bog · 3 games
Windranger
Satanic · 3 games
Axeoften banned
Antares · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
474 picks · 288 bans
Mirana
326 picks · 132 bans
Dark Willow
323 picks · 141 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 453 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 291 bans
Clockwerk
271 picks · 211 bans
Undying
266 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Daxak Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Stariy_Bog Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:34
Daxak Team 46%Stariy_Bog Club 54%
The model gave 54% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 50:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemisteccobladee2k
Anti-MageSatanic
Queen of PainUnique
EnigmaAntares
OmniknightDaxak
SnapfireStariy bog
Shadow DemonGroom
Dark WillowD_Mini
Shadow Shamanr4dom1r
Game 2prediction missed44:38
Daxak Team 45%Stariy_Bog Club 55%
The model gave 55% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 51:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassineccobladee2k
KezSatanic
Dark SeerDaxak
BrewmasterAntares
Outworld DestroyerUnique
WindrangerStariy bog
Dark WillowGroom
Ancient ApparitionD_Mini
Shadow Demonr4dom1r
Game 3prediction missed
Daxak Team 40%Stariy_Bog Club 60%
The model gave 60% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Daxak Team.
Game 4prediction missed47:31
Daxak Team 49%Stariy_Bog Club 51%
The model gave 51% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetDaxak
Chaos KnightSatanic
Lone Druideccobladee2k
Void SpiritAntares
PangolierUnique
WeaverStariy bog
Witch Doctorr4dom1r
PudgeD_Mini
LionGroom
Model check result
Model favoriteStariy_Bog Club · 60%
Series resultDaxak Team 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 4