BETBOOM Streamers Battle 15 · BO5
result vs prediction
Daxak Teamloss 1:3series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Cake Teamwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Daxak Team
Witch Doctorsignature
r4dom1r · 6 games
Grimstroke
Groom · 5 games
Morphling
eccobladee2k · 5 games
Earthshaker
Unique · 4 games
Iooften banned
eccobladee2k · 4 games
Ringmaster
Groom · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
eccobladee2k · 4 games
Tusk
Groom · 4 games
Cake Team
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
Techies
Shishak · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
dabex · 3 games
Grimstroke
Shishak · 3 games
Magnus
Cake · 3 games
Snapfire
Cake · 3 games
Bristleback
Limitless · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
526 picks · 310 bans
Dark Willow
429 picks · 189 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 173 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 505 bans
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 296 bans
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 313 bans
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 508 bans
Windranger
282 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Daxak Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Daxak Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:24
Daxak Team 54%Cake Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeeccobladee2k
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Void Spiritya sulen
Queen of PainCake
AxeDaxak
BeastmasterLimitless
RingmasterGroom
MiranaShishak
DisruptorWeeeNy
Ogre MagiDabex
Game 2prediction missed42:39
Daxak Team 57%Cake Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Cake Team in 51:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyeccobladee2k
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Death ProphetDaxak
MagnusLimitless
Pangolierya sulen
PuckCake
Dark WillowGroom
Skywrath MageShishak
HoodwinkWeeeNy
Shadow DemonDabex
Game 3prediction missed33:38
Daxak Team 58%Cake Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Cake Team in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ioeccobladee2k
MedusaSmiling Knight
UndyingDaxak
TimbersawLimitless
Earthshakerya sulen
Sand KingCake
Nyx AssassinGroom
TuskShishak
Ancient ApparitionWeeeNy
VenomancerDabex
Game 4prediction missed2:0
Daxak Team 58%Cake Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Cake Team in 52:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageeccobladee2k
Lone DruidSmiling Knight
NecrophosDaxak
DawnbreakerLimitless
Linaya sulen
Arc WardenCake
SnapfireGroom
LionShishak
JakiroWeeeNy
BaneDabex
Model check result
Model favoriteDaxak Team · 63%
Series resultCake Team 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4