ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionDDDead Denastywin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yoru Ryodanloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dead Denasty
No games played over 6 months.
Yoru Ryodan
Lion
Ezekiel · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Grimstroke
Ezekiel · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Iooften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
485 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 583 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 532 bans
Lion
421 picks · 229 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 716 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 476 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 599 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 941 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Dead Denasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Dead Denasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:27
Dead Denasty 64%Yoru Ryodan 36%
The model gave 64% on Dead Denasty — the game was taken by Dead Denasty in 37:08.
Game 2prediction missed18:50
Dead Denasty 64%Yoru Ryodan 36%
The model gave 64% on Dead Denasty — the game was taken by Yoru Ryodan in 24:17.
Game 3prediction correct32:23
Dead Denasty 64%Yoru Ryodan 36%
The model gave 64% on Dead Denasty — the game was taken by Dead Denasty in 43:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteDead Denasty · 64%
Series resultDead Denasty 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3