FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionDDDead Denastywin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yoru Ryodanloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dead Denasty
No games played over 6 months.
Yoru Ryodan
Lion
Ezekiel · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Grimstroke
Ezekiel · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Iooften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
470 picks · 587 bans
Muerta
464 picks · 399 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 561 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 533 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 775 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 469 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 877 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Dead Denasty
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Dead Denasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Dead Denasty 63%Yoru Ryodan 37%
The model gave 63% on Dead Denasty — the game was taken by Yoru Ryodan.
Game 2prediction correct
Dead Denasty 63%Yoru Ryodan 37%
The model gave 63% on Dead Denasty — the game was taken by Dead Denasty.
Game 3prediction correct
Dead Denasty 63%Yoru Ryodan 37%
The model gave 63% on Dead Denasty — the game was taken by Dead Denasty.
Model check result
Model favoriteDead Denasty · 63%
Series resultDead Denasty 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3