Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
defwin 1:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Regretloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
def
No games played over 6 months.
Regret
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 482 bans
Tiny
537 picks · 387 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 603 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 271 bans
Death Prophet
378 picks · 641 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 755 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% def
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Regret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:33
def 49%Regret 51%
The model gave 51% on Regret — the game was taken by def in 24:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteRegret · 51%
Series resultdef 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1