DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionDDemoniosloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Flamewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Demonios
No games played over 6 months.
Flame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
291 picks · 710 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
259 picks · 241 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 662 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
Pugna
247 picks · 260 bans
Marci
245 picks · 637 bans
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Demonios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Flame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Demonios 42%Flame 58%
The model gave 58% on Flame — the game was taken by Flame.
Game 2prediction missed
Demonios 42%Flame 58%
The model gave 58% on Flame — the game was taken by Demonios.
Game 3prediction correct
Demonios 42%Flame 58%
The model gave 58% on Flame — the game was taken by Flame.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlame · 58%
Series resultFlame 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3