Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
DGG Esportswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
11Monkeyzloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 636 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 434 bans
Bane
446 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 637 bans
Dragon Knight
394 picks · 475 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 554 bans
Keeper of the Light
331 picks · 656 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% DGG Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:37
DGG Esports 45%11Monkeyz 55%
The model gave 55% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 44:00.
Game 2prediction correct23:39
DGG Esports 45%11Monkeyz 55%
The model gave 55% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 32:32.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 55%
Series resultDGG Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2