Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
DGG Esportswin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EU Rejectsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
EU Rejects
Bristlebackoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
Hoodwink
TANNER · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
TANNER · 3 games
Marcioften banned
TANNER · 3 games
Tusk
Adzantick · 3 games
Viperoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
Visageoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
Chenoften banned
j4 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 436 bans
Mars
473 picks · 692 bans
Bane
435 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 536 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 601 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 597 bans
Sand King
347 picks · 510 bans
Grimstroke
338 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 14%
Hero pool strength56% DGG Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% DGG Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
DGG Esports 79%EU Rejects 21%
The model gave 79% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by EU Rejects in 42:02.
Game 2prediction missed37:26
DGG Esports 79%EU Rejects 21%
The model gave 79% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by EU Rejects in 40:36.
Game 3prediction missed29:16
DGG Esports 79%EU Rejects 21%
The model gave 79% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by EU Rejects in 27:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteDGG Esports · 79%
Series resultDGG Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3