BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Direborn Esportsloss 0:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Direborn Esports
Axeoften banned
woMy · 1 game
Hoodwink
db- · 1 game
Kezoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 1 game
Windranger
db- · 1 game
Team Nemesis
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
rubikon155 · 18 games
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 16 games
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 12 games
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
Phoenix
Jaunuel · 11 games
Windranger
rubikon155 · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 332 bans
Bane
345 picks · 469 bans
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 512 bans
Clockwerk
331 picks · 491 bans
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 304 bans
Windranger
266 picks · 188 bans
Centaur Warrunner
264 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Direborn Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:24
Direborn Esports 25%Team Nemesis 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 51:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
IoDreamocel
TerrorbladeJaCkky
BeastmasterwoMy
SnapfireKen
Keeper of the Lightdb-
UnderlordJabz
38% · 48 games
MiranaNARMAN
43% · 130 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Game 2prediction correct15:40
Direborn Esports 26%Team Nemesis 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendDreamocel
TerrorbladeJaCkky
AxewoMy
Earth SpiritKen
Windrangerdb-
EnigmaJabz
50% · 78 games
MiranaNARMAN
49% · 205 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 90%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2