Direborn Esports vs ЯЧЁ123 — prediction BSIЗО · Dota 2

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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Direborn Esportswin 2:0

series probability

49%51%

probability at match start · final 2:0

ЯЯЧЁ123loss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Direborn Esports

Axeoften banned

woMy · 2 games

50%

Windranger

db- · 2 games

50%

Beastmasteroften banned

woMy · 1 game

Hoodwink

db- · 1 game

100%

Iooften banned

Dreamocel · 1 game

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

db- · 1 game

Kezoften banned

Dreamocel · 1 game

100%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Dreamocel · 1 game

100%

ЯЧЁ123

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

461 picks · 291 bans

51%

Ember Spirit

317 picks · 471 bans

57%

Mirana

295 picks · 111 bans

52%

Clockwerk

293 picks · 319 bans

51%

Bane

285 picks · 410 bans

52%

Dark Willow

285 picks · 122 bans

49%

Shadow Fiend

282 picks · 591 bans

49%

Undying

272 picks · 366 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% Direborn Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total51% ЯЧЁ123

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct0:1

Direborn Esports 52%ЯЧЁ123 48%

The model gave 52% on Direborn Esports — the game was taken by Direborn Esports in 18:34.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo