?
arrow_backBack to match
Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Direbornloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Carstensz Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Direborn

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Juju · 3 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
PlayHard · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
woMy · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalker
woMy · 2 games
100%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Cije · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
db- · 2 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
woMy · 2 games
0%

Carstensz Esports

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ace12 · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
ace12 · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axe
seimei · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ace12 · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ace12 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
603 picks · 375 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
497 picks · 270 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 580 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
465 picks · 389 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
407 picks · 565 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 933 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 867 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
332 picks · 282 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Direborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Carstensz Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:32
Direborn 44%Carstensz Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 47:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddb-
55% · 97 games52% · 11 games
NecrophosDreamocel
Necrophos
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerwoMy
41% · 78 games43% · 101 game
Underlordseimei
Underlord
Silencer
SilencerPlayHard
50% · 60 games58% · 123 games
Baneace12
Bane
Game 2prediction correct28:55
Direborn 43%Carstensz Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 50:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezdb-
52% · 45 games74% · 18 games
Lone DruidDreamocel
Lone Druid
Tidehunter
TidehunterwoMy
38% · 66 games56% · 87 games
Axeseimei
Axe
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPlayHard
40% · 26 games47% · 32 games
Lichace12
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz Esports · 60%
Series resultCarstensz Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2