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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Direbornloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mentality Monsterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Direborn

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
woMy · 4 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
PlayHard · 4 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Juju · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
woMy · 3 games
33%
Kez
Kezoften banned
db- · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
db- · 3 games
33%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
db- · 2 games
100%
Marci
Marcioften banned
db- · 2 games
50%

Mentality Monster

Silencer
Silencer
Juju · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
GaN- · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Juju · 5 games
80%
Luna
Luna
Cije · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Juju · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 4 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
Cije · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
633 picks · 442 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
582 picks · 325 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 570 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
453 picks · 663 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 379 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 527 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 410 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 1041 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Mentality Monster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Mentality Monster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:38
Direborn 45%Mentality Monster 55%
The model gave 55% on Mentality Monster — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 55:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddb-
51% · 232 games46% · 143 games
Timbersawegxrdemxn
Timbersaw
Axe
AxewoMy
52% · 195 games43% · 30 games
AlchemistCije
Alchemist
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPlayHard
56% · 181 game47% · 171 game
PangolierGaN-
Pangolier
48% · 176 games
PhoenixJuju
Phoenix
49% · 88 games
Keeper of the LightOneJey
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct15:37
Direborn 43%Mentality Monster 57%
The model gave 57% on Mentality Monster — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinydb-
49% · 301 game56% · 16 games
MeepoCije
Meepo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerwoMy
47% · 153 games59% · 44 games
Dark Seeregxrdemxn
Dark Seer
Lich
LichPlayHard
44% · 70 games56% · 284 games
Ember SpiritGaN-
Ember Spirit
50% · 153 games
SnapfireOneJey
Snapfire
43% · 27 games
Ancient ApparitionJuju
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteMentality Monster · 59%
Series resultMentality Monster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2