Чемпионат России по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionDDisRespecTloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SESMARACIS eSportwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DisRespecT
No games played over 6 months.
SMARACIS eSport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
400 picks · 1012 bans
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
Mars
376 picks · 605 bans
Grimstroke
367 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
315 picks · 499 bans
Death Prophet
308 picks · 681 bans
Tusk
303 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
281 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% DisRespecT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% SMARACIS eSport
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteSMARACIS eSport · 50%
Series resultSMARACIS eSport 1:2
Series predictioncorrect