Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionDdldfanswin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SESu4 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
dldfans
No games played over 6 months.
Su4 Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 587 bans
Disruptor
545 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 383 bans
Nature's Prophet
423 picks · 705 bans
Undying
413 picks · 593 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 964 bans
Snapfire
396 picks · 295 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% dldfans
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% dldfans
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
dldfans 52%Su4 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on dldfans — the game was taken by Su4 Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
dldfans 52%Su4 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on dldfans — the game was taken by dldfans.
Game 3prediction correct
dldfans 52%Su4 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on dldfans — the game was taken by dldfans.
Model check result
Model favoritedldfans · 52%
Series resultdldfans 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3