Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionDdldfansloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TLThe Last Darkwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
dldfans
Rubick
marblue · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Molasses · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Tz. · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ash · 1 game
Lich
Tz. · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 1 game
The Last Dark
Doomoften banned
Shining · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Silencer
strawberry · 1 game
Sven
poyoyo · 1 game
Techies
strawberry · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
767 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 453 bans
Tiny
430 picks · 379 bans
Beastmaster
419 picks · 980 bans
Nature's Prophet
396 picks · 674 bans
Undying
395 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 922 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:38
dldfans 44%The Last Dark 56%
The model gave 56% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerManic
Alchemistpoyoyo
DoomMolasses
Queen of PainEcho
PuckAsh
AxeShining
Rubickmarblue
Skywrath Magestrawberry
LichTz.
Game 2prediction correct26:41
dldfans 42%The Last Dark 58%
The model gave 58% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 55:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenManic
Alchemistpoyoyo
Ember SpiritAsh
Queen of PainEcho
DoomMolasses
BeastmasterShining
Rubickmarblue
Undyingstrawberry
LichTz.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 63%
Series resultThe Last Dark 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2