Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Dmokafarm Esportsloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BBOTSquadwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dmokafarm Esports
No games played over 6 months.
BOTSquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
778 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
416 picks · 978 bans
Nature's Prophet
405 picks · 685 bans
Undying
399 picks · 595 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 916 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Dmokafarm Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% BOTSquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:52
Dmokafarm Esports 49%BOTSquad 51%
The model gave 51% on BOTSquad — the game was taken by BOTSquad in 41:09.
Game 2prediction correct15:45
Dmokafarm Esports 49%BOTSquad 51%
The model gave 51% on BOTSquad — the game was taken by BOTSquad in 28:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOTSquad · 51%
Series resultBOTSquad 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2