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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 13 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 10 games
80%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
44%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Daxak · 7 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
aik · 7 games
43%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 17 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 14 games
14%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 11 games
55%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mary_y · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 437 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
330 picks · 264 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 548 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
295 picks · 252 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
295 picks · 237 bans
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 463 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 392 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 401 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% DMS
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:22
DMS 63%Dragon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on DMS — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 44:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunarincyq
50% · 244 games51% · 174 games
Gyrocopterlil pleb
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
55% · 94 games50% · 118 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
48% · 185 games52% · 94 games
EnigmaInfernal
Enigma
Snapfire
Snapfireprblms
45% · 204 games49% · 161 game
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiHduo
45% · 19 games52% · 199 games
ClockwerkMary_y
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct28:15
DMS 58%Dragon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
50% · 69 games57% · 145 games
Lunalil pleb
Luna
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageDaxak
45% · 28 games44% · 256 games
Phoenixdualrazee
Phoenix
Tiny
Tinymellojul
48% · 245 games53% · 69 games
EnigmaInfernal
Enigma
Snapfire
Snapfireprblms
46% · 225 games57% · 76 games
Medusaxsvampire
Medusa
Omniknight
OmniknightHduo
47% · 47 games50% · 68 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct46:38
DMS 63%Dragon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 54:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrincyq
48% · 192 games46% · 200 games
Gyrocopterlil pleb
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
58% · 77 games66% · 20 games
Huskardualrazee
Huskar
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaxak
54% · 126 games50% · 79 games
UnderlordInfernal
Underlord
Mirana
Miranaprblms
55% · 123 games46% · 202 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
49% · 201 game43% · 218 games
TuskMary_y
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 70%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3