PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSloss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FBFive Beaverswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DMS
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
prblms · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
Razoroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Five Beavers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 318 bans
Hoodwink
412 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 826 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 882 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
345 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
303 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Five Beavers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:14
DMS 71%Five Beavers 29%
The model gave 71% on DMS — the game was taken by Five Beavers in 44:32.
Game 2prediction missed20:4
DMS 71%Five Beavers 29%
The model gave 71% on DMS — the game was taken by Five Beavers in 30:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 71%
Series resultFive Beavers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2