The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NNoobitASloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DMS
No games played over 6 months.
NoobitAS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 724 bans
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 628 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
408 picks · 761 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1042 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
DMS 75%NoobitAS 25%
The model gave 75% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Game 2prediction correct
DMS 75%NoobitAS 25%
The model gave 75% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 75%
Series resultDMS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2