PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
DOGSENTwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RRE-RNloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DOGSENT
No games played over 6 months.
RE-RN
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
397 picks · 357 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 181 bans
Puck
345 picks · 865 bans
Pugna
300 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 796 bans
Warlock
280 picks · 132 bans
Batrider
273 picks · 683 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% DOGSENT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% RE-RN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
DOGSENT 46%RE-RN 54%
The model gave 54% on RE-RN — the game was taken by DOGSENT.
Game 2prediction missed
DOGSENT 46%RE-RN 54%
The model gave 54% on RE-RN — the game was taken by DOGSENT.
Model check result
Model favoriteRE-RN · 54%
Series resultDOGSENT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2