BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionDDongwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TToLightloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dong
No games played over 6 months.
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
323 picks · 789 bans
Disruptor
321 picks · 298 bans
Pugna
276 picks · 302 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 172 bans
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 749 bans
Snapfire
269 picks · 131 bans
Tusk
268 picks · 248 bans
Marci
261 picks · 779 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Dong
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Dong
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:16
Dong 51%ToLight 49%
The model gave 51% on Dong — the game was taken by Dong in 32:54.
Game 2prediction missed15:37
Dong 51%ToLight 49%
The model gave 51% on Dong — the game was taken by ToLight in 29:03.
Game 3prediction correct34:19
Dong 51%ToLight 49%
The model gave 51% on Dong — the game was taken by Dong in 28:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteDong · 51%
Series resultDong 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3