Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
DOTA2.RU Teamloss 0:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:1
1WIN Staffwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DOTA2.RU Team
No games played over 6 months.
1WIN Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 664 bans
Phoenix
490 picks · 797 bans
Clockwerk
476 picks · 478 bans
Batrider
451 picks · 547 bans
Muerta
421 picks · 361 bans
Magnus
414 picks · 1000 bans
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 763 bans
Bristleback
389 picks · 910 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% DOTA2.RU Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% 1WIN Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:31
DOTA2.RU Team 28%1WIN Staff 72%
The model gave 72% on 1WIN Staff — the game was taken by 1WIN Staff in 47:07.
Model check result
Model favorite1WIN Staff · 72%
Series result1WIN Staff 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1