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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 10 games
10%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 14 games
79%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 11 games
82%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Stormstormer · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 316 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 453 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
323 picks · 376 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 268 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 448 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 479 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 403 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 68%
Hero pool strength66% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total88% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Dragon Esports 24%AVULUS 76%
The model gave 76% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglil pleb
51% · 241 game50% · 49 games
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
Broodmother
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
44% · 97 games57% · 225 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
43% · 58 games51% · 204 games
KunkkaXibbe
Kunkka
Windranger
Windrangerarmageddon
50% · 212 games49% · 90 games
SniperEkki
Sniper
Tusk
TuskMary_y
44% · 180 games57% · 220 games
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct24:54
Dragon Esports 25%AVULUS 75%
The model gave 75% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistlil pleb
48% · 137 games51% · 266 games
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Windranger
Puck
Puckdualrazee
52% · 222 games45% · 402 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
54% · 338 games45% · 110 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Mirana
Miranaarmageddon
53% · 163 games55% · 107 games
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
Elder Titan
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMary_y
49% · 258 games47% · 233 games
LionEkki
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 88%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2