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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DMSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
13%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 13 games
54%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%

DMS

Batrider
Batrider
Daxak · 15 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
prblms · 11 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
prblms · 9 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
44%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 450 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
326 picks · 251 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 263 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 546 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
299 picks · 408 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 460 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
274 picks · 397 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
273 picks · 229 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total62% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:15
Dragon Esports 44%DMS 56%
The model gave 56% on DMS — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalil pleb
51% · 111 games46% · 154 games
Morphlingrincyq
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
47% · 167 games39% · 15 games
LycanDaxak
Lycan
Huskar
Huskardualrazee
54% · 43 games46% · 133 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Clockwerk
Clockwerkxsvampire
55% · 255 games51% · 162 games
Batriderprblms
Batrider
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
51% · 37 games53% · 149 games
EnchantressHduo
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed32:12
Dragon Esports 44%DMS 56%
The model gave 56% on DMS — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherdualrazee
50% · 38 games47% · 204 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlil pleb
46% · 127 games53% · 95 games
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal BeastInfernal
52% · 132 games58% · 67 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
45% · 197 games43% · 21 game
Bounty Hunterprblms
Bounty Hunter
Omniknight
OmniknightMary_y
61% · 38 games46% · 145 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 62%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2