CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 9 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
Mirana
armageddon · 8 games
Matreshka Team
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Elder Titan
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
WoE · 1 game
Zeus
Ethereal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
348 picks · 296 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 436 bans
Jakiro
330 picks · 253 bans
Enchantress
318 picks · 538 bans
Rubick
299 picks · 286 bans
Windranger
296 picks · 415 bans
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 473 bans
Sand King
294 picks · 796 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Dragon Esports 60%Matreshka Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Dragon Esports 60%Matreshka Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 60%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2