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Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
paw · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 1 game
100%
Sand King
Sand King
Norma · 1 game
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
paw · 1 game
100%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
100%

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
22%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
13%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 8 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
468 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 645 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 367 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 704 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 564 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
331 picks · 936 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 30%
Hero pool strength64% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
Dragon Esports 53%Monte 47%
The model gave 53% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 48:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusdualrazee
41% · 83 games56% · 62 games
LifestealerCrystallize
Lifestealer
Ursa
Ursapaw
57% · 35 games55% · 90 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Mars
MarsNorma
52% · 199 games47% · 37 games
EnigmaVladikTheHtiviy
Enigma
42% · 75 games
PhoenixEcNart
Phoenix
56% · 53 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct35:6
Dragon Esports 51%Monte 49%
The model gave 51% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerpaw
50% · 83 games50% · 182 games
TinyCrystallize
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
43% · 97 games44% · 68 games
ZeusMoonlight
Zeus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
52% · 182 games53% · 26 games
Legion CommanderVladikTheHtiviy
Legion Commander
65% · 64 games
ChenEcNart
Chen
43% · 22 games
Shadow ShamanQBFY
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 54%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2