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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
18%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 16 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shishak · 15 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Underlord
Underlord
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 603 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 419 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 471 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
332 picks · 409 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 597 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 165 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 343 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
271 picks · 794 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:29
Dragon Esports 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 1:01:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLowskill
47% · 293 games43% · 174 games
Razorряф^^
Razor
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdualrazee
58% · 153 games50% · 375 games
PangolierMiyaoo
Pangolier
Mars
MarsInfernal
51% · 282 games51% · 222 games
LionShishak
Lion
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
45% · 159 games50% · 279 games
Phoenixantoha
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
56% · 163 games
Game 2prediction missed30:13
Dragon Esports 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLowskill
52% · 259 games51% · 181 game
Nature's Prophetряф^^
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
50% · 189 games49% · 354 games
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
Centaur Warrunner
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdualrazee
55% · 121 game52% · 317 games
Phoenixantoha
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
52% · 245 games40% · 249 games
SnapfireShishak
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskMary_y
48% · 287 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 56%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2