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CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 10 games
30%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
14%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 6 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 6 games
50%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 15 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
JANTER · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
414 picks · 423 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 306 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 903 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
393 picks · 815 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
356 picks · 708 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 535 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 482 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 517 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total89% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:23
Dragon Esports 26%Night Pulse 74%
The model gave 74% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverpaw
49% · 196 games48% · 52 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
47% · 75 games58% · 38 games
SlarkKami
Slark
Mars
MarsNorma
56% · 222 games49% · 184 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
48% · 166 games
BatriderJANTER
Batrider
38% · 53 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct22:33
Dragon Esports 25%Night Pulse 75%
The model gave 75% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpaw
51% · 156 games51% · 51 game
Shadow FiendV-Tune
Shadow Fiend
Rubick
Rubickdualrazee
40% · 244 games50% · 338 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
52% · 187 games62% · 31 game
Legion CommanderKami
Legion Commander
50% · 137 games
SnapfireJANTER
Snapfire
55% · 30 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct10:23
Dragon Esports 26%Night Pulse 74%
The model gave 74% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magepaw
51% · 37 games46% · 55 games
MorphlingV-Tune
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
47% · 77 games58% · 18 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordNorma
45% · 79 games65% · 31 game
InvokerWorick
Invoker
60% · 56 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
43% · 33 games
EnchantressJANTER
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 89%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3