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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Palianytsialoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 15 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 13 games
8%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 8 games
25%

Palianytsia

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 12 games
67%
Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 11 games
91%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 9 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
kreker · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 434 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
333 picks · 263 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
313 picks · 548 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
301 picks · 243 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
292 picks · 249 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 464 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
280 picks · 384 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
280 picks · 401 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 61%
Hero pool strength65% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:29
Dragon Esports 34%Palianytsia 66%
The model gave 66% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 53:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlil pleb
47% · 40 games56% · 225 games
LunaCrystallize
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
44% · 129 games49% · 99 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
45% · 359 games51% · 179 games
DoomfortniteMan
Doom
Pugna
Pugnaxsvampire
51% · 109 games56% · 55 games
Omniknightkreker
Omniknight
Tusk
TuskMary_y
50% · 178 games52% · 257 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct19:33
Dragon Esports 37%Palianytsia 63%
The model gave 63% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightlil pleb
49% · 245 games51% · 79 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
57% · 144 games53% · 81 game
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsInfernal
47% · 215 games50% · 398 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
47% · 36 games43% · 219 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
52% · 218 games52% · 81 game
Omniknightkreker
Omniknight
Game 3prediction missed22:31
Dragon Esports 37%Palianytsia 63%
The model gave 63% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 55:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalil pleb
50% · 77 games51% · 133 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Huskar
Huskardualrazee
63% · 21 game53% · 62 games
SniperMoonlight
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
43% · 120 games59% · 28 games
Night StalkerfortniteMan
Night Stalker
Pugna
Pugnaxsvampire
46% · 101 game57% · 88 games
Alchemistkreker
Alchemist
Tusk
TuskMary_y
47% · 190 games46% · 198 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 73%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3