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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 29 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 22 games
36%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 15 games
40%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 30 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 686 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 491 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 536 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 183 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 495 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
327 picks · 635 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 328 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:30
Dragon Esports 46%Passion UA 54%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlil pleb
56% · 35 games44% · 168 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPanda
55% · 130 games60% · 38 games
Clinkzyowaai
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
49% · 245 games49% · 156 games
Sand Kingniche
Sand King
Phoenix
Phoenixxsvampire
49% · 322 games50% · 239 games
SnapfireFernans
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMary_y
57% · 103 games41% · 234 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct27:26
Dragon Esports 44%Passion UA 56%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistlil pleb
61% · 148 games43% · 127 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Invoker
InvokerPanda
51% · 134 games44% · 114 games
TerrorbladeBatyuk
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterInfernal
55% · 51 game50% · 141 game
Ursayowaai
Ursa
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
53% · 169 games43% · 138 games
MarciFernans
Marci
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
47% · 261 game52% · 243 games
Shadow Demonflacko
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct31:33
Dragon Esports 45%Passion UA 55%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 59:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectrelil pleb
56% · 20 games48% · 79 games
Linaniche
Lina
Death Prophet
Death ProphetInfernal
49% · 62 games47% · 31 game
Drow Rangeryowaai
Drow Ranger
Morphling
MorphlingPanda
46% · 240 games47% · 106 games
BrewmasterBatyuk
Brewmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
61% · 62 games49% · 219 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
52% · 100 games51% · 49 games
Elder Titanflacko
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 60%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3