CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 7 games
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 4 games
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 32 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 24 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 16 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 15 games
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 13 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
398 picks · 620 bans
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 366 bans
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 438 bans
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 128 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 417 bans
Rubick
309 picks · 160 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:22
Dragon Esports 43%SIBE Team 57%
The model gave 57% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingpaw
Anti-Magerincyq
Primal BeastNorma
Windrangerряф^^
Tinydualrazee
EnchantressSOhY
44% · 281 game
Rubicksunset
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Dragon Esports 41%SIBE Team 59%
The model gave 59% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 29:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Ursarincyq
Svenpaw
Razorряф^^
Vengeful SpiritNorma
Batridersunset
55% · 14 games
JakiroSOhY
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 63%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2