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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 28 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 23 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 14 games
43%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 7 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 681 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 480 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 548 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 448 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 658 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 326 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:52
Dragon Esports 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
56% · 300 games46% · 162 games
MuertaDaaD-
Muerta
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidlil pleb
54% · 150 games56% · 264 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Magnus
MagnusInfernal
52% · 177 games45% · 422 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkxsvampire
49% · 369 games49% · 317 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskMary_y
49% · 408 games46% · 239 games
Dark WillowjAMES
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct38:20
Dragon Esports 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursalil pleb
53% · 77 games50% · 137 games
Shadow FiendDaaD-
Shadow Fiend
Magnus
Magnusdualrazee
52% · 117 games52% · 70 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
49% · 228 games53% · 279 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
48% · 168 games48% · 52 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Ogre Magi
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
47% · 149 games50% · 201 game
Dark WillowjAMES
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct42:39
Dragon Esports 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 50:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
56% · 110 games47% · 148 games
RazorDaaD-
Razor
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlil pleb
54% · 99 games44% · 160 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusInfernal
50% · 138 games54% · 74 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMary_y
49% · 228 games51% · 157 games
PugnajAMES
Pugna
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
46% · 159 games51% · 195 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 51%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3