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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 29 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 23 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 23 games
35%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 17 games
41%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 13 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 664 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 504 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 549 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
362 picks · 185 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
333 picks · 360 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 432 bans
55%
Invoker
Invoker
315 picks · 863 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 609 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Dragon Esports 61%Zero Tenacity 39%
The model gave 61% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 20:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPanda
55% · 180 games48% · 126 games
GyrocopterDaaD-
Gyrocopter
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinlil pleb
49% · 34 games45% · 73 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerInfernal
48% · 94 games44% · 136 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
51% · 92 games58% · 96 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Lich
LichMary_y
55% · 40 games47% · 9 games
UndyingLeBronDota
Undying
Game 2prediction correct52:48
Dragon Esports 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 48:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlil pleb
48% · 282 games47% · 97 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPanda
44% · 103 games44% · 199 games
RazorDaaD-
Razor
Doom
DoomInfernal
53% · 243 games52% · 187 games
Monkey KingStojkov
Monkey King
Batrider
Batriderxsvampire
52% · 325 games52% · 241 game
Dark WillowPablo
Dark Willow
Lich
LichMary_y
55% · 58 games53% · 287 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 69%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2