Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragonloss 0:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
DSDemon Slayerwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon
Marsoften banned
ghost · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 4 games
Lion
Azrael · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Demon Slayer
Dark Willow
Helios · 3 games
Lion
Helios · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 2 games
Snapfire
Helios · 2 games
Abaddon
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Bane
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Night · 1 game
Clockwerk
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
413 picks · 941 bans
Void Spirit
378 picks · 539 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 702 bans
Mars
327 picks · 546 bans
Grimstroke
311 picks · 308 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 218 bans
Lion
281 picks · 155 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Dragon 53%Demon Slayer 47%
The model gave 53% on Dragon — the game was taken by Demon Slayer.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 53%
Series resultDemon Slayer 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1