Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragonwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dynastyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Dynasty
Mirana
Hy · 4 games
Tusk
Hy · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Hy · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hy · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Hy · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Hy · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
Hy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
343 picks · 701 bans
Void Spirit
324 picks · 408 bans
Mars
272 picks · 478 bans
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
230 picks · 340 bans
Rubick
228 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 642 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Dragon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:44
Dragon 61%Dynasty 39%
The model gave 61% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 44:10.
Game 2prediction correct25:16
Dragon 61%Dynasty 39%
The model gave 61% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 25:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 61%
Series resultDragon 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2