Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragonwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
ghost · 1 game
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
464 picks · 1017 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 621 bans
Mars
375 picks · 660 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 666 bans
Earth Spirit
341 picks · 294 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
271 picks · 853 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 55%
Series resultDragon 2:0
Series predictionmissed