Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Silencer
ShakaLord · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ShakaLord · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
drakesh1t · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
533 picks · 358 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 488 bans
Tiny
488 picks · 423 bans
Treant Protector
371 picks · 440 bans
Mirana
354 picks · 348 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 164 bans
Clockwerk
286 picks · 181 bans
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 705 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 69%
Hero pool strength61% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
Dreamers 35%Balrogs 65%
The model gave 65% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 28:02.
Game 2prediction correct26:19
Dreamers 35%Balrogs 65%
The model gave 65% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 35:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 65%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2