Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 10 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 7 games
Sniperoften banned
payk · 4 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
payk · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Disruptor
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
993 picks · 676 bans
Tiny
662 picks · 486 bans
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 952 bans
Tusk
560 picks · 438 bans
Snapfire
528 picks · 357 bans
Treant Protector
516 picks · 509 bans
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1144 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Lava
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
Dreamers 47%Lava 53%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 23:57.
Game 2prediction correct11:37
Dreamers 47%Lava 53%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 27:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 53%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2