EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam Syntaxloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Syntax
Tusksignature
Stoic · 9 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Largooften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 5 games
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 4 games
Mirana
Jeezy · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
emptiness · 3 games
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstrokesignature
Aidar · 20 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 14 games
Largosignature
kae · 13 games
Kunkka
86 · 12 games
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
Lion
Aidar · 9 games
Baneoften banned
kyford · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kae · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
493 picks · 331 bans
Bane
346 picks · 468 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 507 bans
Clockwerk
333 picks · 494 bans
Shadow Fiend
310 picks · 645 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 306 bans
Windranger
266 picks · 188 bans
Centaur Warrunner
261 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Team Syntax
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:48
Team Syntax 40%Team Spirit Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Dawnbreakerkae
KezTA2000
Ember Spirit86
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
TuskAidar
Shadow Demonkreker
Dark WillowQBFY
Game 2prediction correct3:23
Team Syntax 39%Team Spirit Academy 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 22:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezTA2000
Timbersawkae
Puckmellojul
Earth Spirit86
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
RubickAidar
Miranakreker
TechiesQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2