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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Dudley boysloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dudley boys

Razor
Razoroften banned
Shad · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Adzantick · 2 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Panda · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 1 game
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BOOM · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pablo · 1 game
100%

Kalmychata

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
29%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 6 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Actor · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 4 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 752 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
345 picks · 316 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
344 picks · 233 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
338 picks · 685 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 382 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
306 picks · 534 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
288 picks · 607 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Dudley boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Dudley boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:47
Dudley boys 59%Kalmychata 41%
The model gave 59% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShad
51% · 74 games52% · 97 games
Templar AssassinRetsu
Templar Assassin
Snapfire
SnapfireAdzantick
48% · 118 games53% · 39 games
UnderlordActor
Underlord
Doom
DoomMinD_ContRoL
48% · 153 games54% · 31 game
Sand KingNattyNarwhal
Sand King
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPanda
51% · 32 games58% · 53 games
Chenantoha
Chen
42% · 157 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed6:20
Dudley boys 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 15:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShad
48% · 212 games52% · 71 game
BroodmotherRetsu
Broodmother
Monkey King
Monkey KingAdzantick
53% · 118 games51% · 355 games
Centaur WarrunnerActor
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
49% · 367 games51% · 246 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfirePanda
47% · 237 games51% · 294 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickPablo
45% · 338 games52% · 306 games
Phoenixantoha
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteDudley boys · 65%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2