?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Dudley boyswin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dudley boys

Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Yuma · 3 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
9Class · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 2 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Xakoda · 2 games
100%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 11 games
82%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
so bad · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
271 picks · 353 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
239 picks · 112 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 482 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
206 picks · 304 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 312 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 407 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
192 picks · 176 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 355 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 75%
Hero pool strength56% Dudley boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Dudley boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:15
Dudley boys 59%Nemiga Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 28:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
53% · 117 games48% · 191 game
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
54% · 107 games46% · 126 games
Spirit BreakerBb3px
Spirit Breaker
Riki
RikiAdzantick
56% · 48 games44% · 103 games
InvokerAinkrad
Invoker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXakoda
52% · 160 games46% · 30 games
Baneforcemajor
Bane
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner9Class
49% · 71 game55% · 53 games
Chenso bad
Chen
Game 2prediction missed29:38
Dudley boys 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
50% · 123 games51% · 95 games
TimbersawAinkrad
Timbersaw
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMinD_ContRoL
52% · 17 games52% · 65 games
Weaverv1olent-
Weaver
Marci
MarciAdzantick
47% · 78 games38% · 4 games
SlardarBb3px
Slardar
Muerta
Muerta9Class
52% · 69 games53% · 271 game
Nature's Prophetforcemajor
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
TuskXakoda
42% · 196 games53% · 48 games
Lionso bad
Lion
Game 3prediction correct39:27
Dudley boys 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Dudley boys — the game was taken by Dudley boys in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAdzantick
55% · 101 game48% · 48 games
Lunav1olent-
Luna
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMinD_ContRoL
45% · 24 games46% · 55 games
RazorBb3px
Razor
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuma
48% · 135 games48% · 233 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXakoda
57% · 262 games52% · 224 games
Tuskforcemajor
Tusk
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter9Class
52% · 73 games40% · 35 games
Lionso bad
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteDudley boys · 67%
Series resultDudley boys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3