PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Eaglewin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBuriedloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eagle
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 12 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 6 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 6 games
Muerta
Tz. · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Manic · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Rubick
Hara · 4 games
Techies
Victoria · 4 games
Buried
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 350 bans
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 602 bans
Techies
365 picks · 290 bans
Mars
363 picks · 560 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
344 picks · 709 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 195 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Buried
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Eagle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:22
Eagle 56%Buried 44%
The model gave 56% on Eagle — the game was taken by Buried in 22:52.
Game 2prediction correct23:9
Eagle 56%Buried 44%
The model gave 56% on Eagle — the game was taken by Eagle in 25:11.
Game 3prediction correct25:26
Eagle 56%Buried 44%
The model gave 56% on Eagle — the game was taken by Eagle in 54:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteEagle · 56%
Series resultEagle 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3